As of Thursday, most major news outlets and even several important trade organizations ran headlines claiming mortgage rates were flat this week.  But rates are actually much lower compared to last week.  What’s up with that?

The culprit is the weekly mortgage rate survey compiled by Freddie Mac which has been the mortgage world’s go-to rate index for decades.  There’s nothing […]

While this newsletter series has said it many times before and in many different ways, it bears repeating (and perhaps some extra emphasis this time around): THE FED DOESN’T SET MORTGAGE RATES.

Here are several recent examples of the same thesis for those that really want to dig in to the underlying science and track record:

Worst […]

Remember the summer of 2013? Fans of low rates would rather forget it. Specifically, the 2nd to last week in June 2013 marked one of the most abrupt mortgage rate jumps on record. You’d have to go back to 1987 to see anything bigger.

The first week of July 2013 was the 2nd worst week of […]

Mortgage rates are on a tear.  As of this week, 2019 is now the best year in more than a decade in terms of the peak-to-trough move.  But there’s a catch: 2019 isn’t over yet, and there’s always a risk that rates move higher between now and the end of the year.

So, will they (move higher)?

There are plenty […]

It’s easy enough for media outlets to accurately report the underlying facts when it comes to mortgage rates and housing. It seems far harder to find consensus when it comes to interpreting those facts.  Let’s clear up some of the misconceptions driving this phenomenon as we recap the week’s market movement and housing-related developments.

For many consumers […]

Various speeches from members of the Federal Reserve contributed to upward pressure on rates throughout the week. But then on Friday, all that pressure was erased in an instant or two.  What has that kind of power?  

If you were forced to guess Friday’s big market mover in advance based on a schedule of events, the […]

This week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released application numbers that confirm what almost anyone in the mortgage industry could have already told you (if they could find the time and energy!)  A new refi boom is underway.  

The refi numbers are all the more impressive considering how hard-fought the mortgage rate improvement has been.  There’s a […]

Market volatility has been fairly intense over the past week and a half with trade war drama taking the spotlight away from the Fed and economic data. The following chart shows the Fed announcement last Wednesday being trumped by Trump’s tariff tweets on Thursday and then again by China’s decision to weaken its currency (Yuan) […]

On the morning after this week’s Fed rate cut, mortgage rates were roughly unchanged versus the previous morning.  This will come as a surprise to scores of consumers who mistakenly believe the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut equates to a 0.25% drop in ALL rates.

The Fed only sets its own “Fed Funds Rate” which governs overnight lending between big banks.  The only direct […]