It was an action-packed week for financial markets. Earnings were in full swing. There was a ton of economic data to digest. And of course, there was the Fed announcement and press conference to cause volatility from Wednesday afternoon on. But one of the most interesting developments was the big bounce in Pending Home Sales on […]
The future is always uncertain when it comes to financial markets and interest rate movement, but there are times where a certain series of events seems more likely. For most of 2019, mid-March looked to be one of those times.
The year began with a sharp move lower in rates–sharp enough that it wasn’t sustainable. Rates rushed to […]
By some measures, housing and mortgage markets took a turn for the worse in 2018. Some of the weakness can be thought of in a positive light (i.e. housing “catching its breath” after a strong run). But the rest of the weakness raised questions as to how deep the housing and mortgage market corrections might […]
Brace yourself. There’s a lot to unpack this week. When it comes to factors affecting home sales, rates, and markets in general, we’ve rarely seen such a combination of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability.
Home Sales Shocker
After being delayed for several weeks due to the shutdown, we finally got New Home Sales numbers for November. This isn’t the […]
As long as we’re talking about government shutdowns that last a few weeks, past precedent is highly informative, but the longer the current shutdown continues, the more we’ll be in uncharted territory. This is especially true for the housing market.
The only relevant comparison in the past 20+ years is with the government shutdown of 2013. Unfortunately, any interesting […]
It wouldn’t be 2018 in the housing market if there wasn’t at least one report painting a gloomier picture. The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index (or “builder confidence” for short) did those honors this week.
Up until now, builder confidence had been holding up better than other housing metrics in 2018. That changed abruptly this week […]
Are you mad? Whether you’re a housing/mortgage professional or simply a person who might like to buy/sell/refinance a house at some point in the near future, you have a right to be frustrated.
Housing is definitely in the midst of a cooling phase. There are many reasons for this, and they’re not all bad or abnormal. It’s hard to […]
There’s no question that some housing markets around the country are showing signs of cooling. Price reductions are starting to show up again after an extended absence, the average home is staying on the market a bit longer, and inventory is finally coming up from the lowest levels in decades.
To top it all off, this […]
Both New and Existing Home Sales came in lower than expected this week. Taken together with last week’s big drop in Housing Starts, this raises obvious questions about the housing market. How much should you worry?
Incidentally, I posed the same question in last week’s newsletter. You can revisit it with this link or simply read on. The answer is the […]
A monthly report on new residential construction came out this week, showing a big drop in housing starts (the groundbreaking phase following a building permit). Should we worry about a slowdown in home sales?
The short answer is “no.” The long answer is a bit more nuanced, but in both cases, we’re certainly not standing on the edge […]