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Housing Market Weakness Depends on Perspective

This week’s biggest housing-related headline was the drop to a 3-year low in Existing Home Sales. This is just the latest in a series of reports that suggests housing has turned some sort of scary corner. But drawing the line between fear and reality can be a matter of perspective.

Has housing data actually weakened in the past year?  Undoubtedly!  […]

By |January 25th, 2019|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

Is This The Last Chance for Low Rates?

Interest rates have enjoyed several months of prosperity without any major bounce back toward higher levels, but that might be changing as of this week. Could this be the last time we see rates this low for a while?

The answer depends on the definition of ‘a while.’  There’s always some risk that rates will rise for longer than we might […]

By |January 18th, 2019|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

Does Housing Care About The Shutdown?

As long as we’re talking about government shutdowns that last a few weeks, past precedent is highly informative, but the longer the current shutdown continues, the more we’ll be in uncharted territory. This is especially true for the housing market.

The only relevant comparison in the past 20+ years is with the government shutdown of 2013.  Unfortunately, any interesting […]

By |January 11th, 2019|Blog, Home Buying, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

Is Everything Already Changing in 2019?

It was a long December for the stock market, which had its worst month since the financial crisis (in terms of % change). Meanwhile, interest rates had their best month since June 2016.

The size and direction of those moves caused speculation about a big reversal at the beginning of 2019.  In both cases, traders figured stocks and rates had […]

By |January 4th, 2019|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

Big Risks and Opportunities Heading Into The New Year

2018 has been an interesting year to say the least. Stocks hit all-time highs and are now in the midst of their worst month on record in terms of outright losses. Rates hit their highest levels in at least 7 years but have fallen fairly quickly heading into the end of the year.

The 11th-hour volatility raises a few big questions about […]

By |December 28th, 2018|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

What’s Up With Market Madness After Fed’s Rate Hike?

Last week we discussed the possibility of mortgage rates continuing to fall despite the near certainty of this week’s Fed rate hike. That’s exactly what happened, but it was the move in stocks that got the most attention–not a surprising result given the following chart.

While there has been plenty of news coverage of the potential government shutdown and Trump’s potential legal […]

By |December 21st, 2018|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

The Fed Will Hike, But Rates Could Keep Falling

Last week, we discussed a surprising spike in market volatility. Fortunately, one of the volatile moves involved interest rates dropping to their lowest levels since September. This week has been quite different.  The volatility is gone.  Rates have bounced modestly and consolidated (i.e. moved in a narrower range).

Consolidation is often seen just ahead of some big flashpoint.  While […]

By |December 14th, 2018|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

Just When You Thought It Couldn’t Get Any Crazier

Last week’s newsletter asked whether or not the highest interest rates of this economic cycle are behind us. At the time, this was a relatively new and bold assertion. Now, this week makes that assessment look tame by comparison.

Specifically, rates surged triumphantly lower, and at a much quicker pace.  From the recent highs, this is now the biggest, fastest […]

By |December 7th, 2018|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

Are The Highest Interest Rates Behind Us?

Relative to the last 2 years of pain for rates, a sense of hope has emerged, seemingly overnight, as the 10yr Treasury yield (an important benchmark for longer-term rates like mortgages) broke through a key level.

3.05% had consistently blocked the advance of falling rates for more than 2 months.  The most recent bounce happened just last week.  Breaking through […]

By |November 30th, 2018|Blog, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments

Housing Showing Some Signs of Stabilizing

It wouldn’t be 2018 in the housing market if there wasn’t at least one report painting a gloomier picture.  The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index (or “builder confidence” for short) did those honors this week.

Up until now, builder confidence had been holding up better than other housing metrics in 2018.  That changed abruptly this week […]

By |November 23rd, 2018|Blog, Home Buying, Home Selling, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments